2020 Forecasts – #90

It took 15 days and an in-depth review of 2019 to come up with this forecast to help you with your decision making.

The following are our staff’s and my 10 recommendations on major issues facing all of us in 2020:

  1. The President will not be impeached, will win re-election by a land-slide.
  2. Lots of work to do on trade tensions that should ease, if China keeps its promises. Will China stop hacking key computers and stealing our intellectual property? We have seen the damaging effects of tariffs to China, but any miscues will set technology issues on the main burner.
  3. We are going to stop burning coal to the tune of a 45-year low (down 550 to 570 million tons in 2020). Why don’t we review what made us meet global demand in 2007 of 1.1 billion tons?  This fact calls for an action plan to save this industry from dying.  Here’s a project for our Congress to tackle NOW – instead of doing the foolish things that could keep them busy for weeks to come.  There have to be other uses for coal besides Stateside old power plants.
  4. We have little to forecast, but growth for the legalized weed industry is generating Sales taxes. At least Seven more States are coming aboard in 2020.  The tax bases on Chicago’s South Side are humming with increases. All I can tell you, is that crime is on the increase in the section of town that can ill afford to have young boys and girls selling or buying weed at the age of 5-8. Recreational weed will become the SILENT KILLER of the future.
  5. We would have to replace 36 Democrats with Republicans to get control of the House. That is likely not to happen, but the Senate should remain with the Republicans since they need to keep Democrats from getting four seats to win the majority – this is highly unlikely. Let’s plan on Republicans chipping away at the 36 number.
  6. Electric vehicles will increase significantly with Tesla contributing to the major U.S. & Foreign car makers adding electric vehicles to their offerings.
  7. Two dozen countries ranging from the Caribbean – to the tip of South America – created the 32 million potential Hispanic Voters who will be the largest minority ethnic or racial group in the electorate, or just over 13% of all eligible voters.  That’s slightly above the 12% share held by black voters. Does a legal registration system provide the privacy so badly needed to insure a level and fair election?
  8. 4 Billion Global Shipments will grow the Smart Phone market after three years of decline.  The driver is 5G – most people have no idea why they want 5G, but they want it.  The consumer has to have the latest technology. Apple will bring their 5G phone to market in September launching 4 models with 5G. As usual, its slate of new phones will be a big hit and give the market a jolt at year end – especially the Holiday season.
  9. More uses of Robots, Drones – (rules issued by FAA)- driverless cars, trucks, trains and AI playing a role in the Home.
  10. Blockchain Software will grow, as well as technology in general. We will expand on these 10 subjects in our bi-weekly BLOG. Since this is our first attempt at business forecasting, it will be a challenge to see how we did at the end of 2020.

MANAGEMENT LESSON:

If you are not addressing several points in the 2020 forecast, you are missing the big picture and threatening the very foundations of your businesses.  One thing you should consider, is to have a meeting to get forecasts about the capabilities of your business, your markets, suppliers, the % of organic/new business, and most importantly you will have to focus on existing versus new CUSTOMERS in terms of acquisition and retention.  This should be a well planned meeting to include the preparation of a one-page plan for each functional area.  Unless you have this meeting, you will continue with business as usual with each SILO marching to their own beat.